Assuming that each of the 8 groups is an independent microcosm (I think a valid assumption) then the relative probabilities (based on FIFA ranking points per team) that each of the teams will go through the group stage are:
| Group A P(France) = 0.321 P(Mexico) = 0.288 P(Uruguay) = 0.278 P(South Africa) = 0.113 | Group B P(Argentina) = 0.305 P(Greece) = 0.272 P(Nigeria) = 0.249 P(South Korea) = 0.174 |
| Group C P(England) = 0.289 P(United States) = 0.257 P(Slovenia) = 0.232 P(Algeria) = 0.222 | Group D P(Germany) = 0.296 P(Serbia) = 0.253 P(Australia) = 0.236 P(Ghana) = 0.215 |
| Group E P(Netherlands) = 0.344 P(Cameroon) = 0.250 P(Denmark) = 0.216 P(Japan) = 0.190 | Group F P(Italy) = 0.375 P(Paraguay) = 0.260 P(Slovakia) = 0.235 P(New Zealand) = 0.130 |
| Group G P(Brazil) = 0.403 P(Portugal) = 0.312 P(Ivory Coast) = 0.212 P(North Korea) = 0.073 | Group H P(Spain) = 0.382 P(Chile) = 0.232 P(Switzerland) = 0.209 P(Honduras) = 0.178 |
The odds that Greece will go through the group stage are:
0.272 / (1 - 0.272) = 0.374 or about 3:8
The odds against are 8:3.
In general, Group B is difficult but it seems that the most competitive groups are C and D. And although Group G is the group of death, the probability that Brazil and Portugal will advance to the round of 16 is very high.
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